The takes
Every take is one question about a real event, with the criteria that decide it published before anyone can make a call. Browsing is open to everyone; a free account is only needed to predict.
How a market works
The question is written first
Before a take opens it has to pass a set of checks: a single unambiguous event, a source that will actually publish the answer, and a window that reality can meet. Questions that fail any of those are rejected rather than published.
How a take gets written→The crowd prices it
An automated market maker always quotes both sides. Backing a side raises its price, so the number you see is the aggregate of what everyone has been willing to commit to. A fresh market moves easily; a heavily traded one resists.
How pricing works→Evidence settles it
After the resolution deadline, the take is checked against its source. Clear evidence settles automatically. Thin or contradictory evidence escalates to a person. Unanswerable questions are voided and all Stars returned.
Inside the resolution engine→What you can predict
Cricket
Match outcomes, first-innings totals, series results and player milestones. The deepest category on the platform, and the one where venue and conditions research pays most.
The conditions checklist→Cinema
Opening weekends, release dates, casting and certification. Questions are written against a named reporting source, because trackers routinely disagree about the same film on the same day.
Forecasting an opening weekend→Awards & recognition
Nominations and winners. Slow-moving markets that reward anyone willing to study who actually votes and under which counting system.
Predict the voters, not the films→Music & pop culture
Releases, chart positions, announcements. Short-horizon questions settled against published charts and official announcements.
Which film knowledge converts→Before your first call
Most losing predictions are not wrong about the world — they are wrong about the question. Four things to check on any take, in order:
- 1
The verb and the threshold
Who does what, by when, measured how. Watch for "officially", "consecutive", "during" and "at least" — each narrows the question considerably.
- 2
Both deadlines
Predictions close at the acceptance deadline, which can be well before the event. The resolution deadline is when the answer is due.
- 3
The source
A scorecard settles fast and cleanly. An announcement runs on someone else's schedule. A reported figure depends on which reporter the take names.
- 4
What makes it Void
Abandonment, postponement, cancellation. If a disruption is plausible for this question, the criteria should say what happens — and that changes the real probability.
Questions people ask
What is a take?
A single question about a real event with a Yes side and a No side. Each side carries a price between 1 and 99, and the two always sum to 100. That price is the market's collective estimate of the probability, not our opinion.
Who sets the price?
Nobody. An automated market maker quotes both sides, and the price moves as players commit Stars to one side or the other. There is no bookmaker's margin: Yes and No sum to exactly 100.
What are Stars worth?
Nothing outside the game. Stars are a free scoring unit. They cannot be bought, sold, transferred or withdrawn as money. Making a prediction costs no money and requires no deposit.
How does a take get settled?
Against a named source — a scorecard, an official announcement, a certified reporting body. A scheduled job checks each take after its resolution deadline; clear evidence settles it automatically, thin or contradictory evidence sends it to a person. Questions that turn out to be unanswerable are voided and all Stars are returned.
Can the resolution criteria change after I make a call?
No. Criteria are fixed when a take opens and are never edited afterwards. If we find a question was written badly, we void it and return everyone's Stars rather than redefining it.
Do I need an account to browse?
No. Anyone can read the markets, the criteria and the prices. A free account is only needed to make a prediction.