The leaderboard
Ranked by the Stars gained from correct calls across settled takes. Stars cannot be bought, so position is earned by judgement alone.
Your rank awaits
Correct calls grow your weekly score and move you up the board. Create a free account, claim your free Stars, and start your run.
How ranking works
Net profit
The default. Total Stars gained minus Stars lost across every settled prediction. It rewards finding markets the crowd has mispriced, not backing whatever is most likely.
Accuracy
Hit rate, weighted by how many calls it is based on. A perfect record over three predictions is not evidence, and the board treats it accordingly rather than putting it on top.
Volume
How many settled calls you have made. On its own it measures activity rather than skill — useful mainly as context for the other two columns.
A week measures luck. A season measures skill.
This is worth stating plainly, because it changes how you should read any short-window ranking. Over seven days, one large position that happened to land will outrank a month of well-priced calls. That is not a flaw in the scoring; it is what variance does over a small sample.
If you want to know whether you are actually good at this, the number to watch is not your rank. It is your calibration: of everything you called at around 70%, did about 70% of it happen? That question needs dozens of settled takes before it means anything — and it is the only measure that keeps improving.
Questions people ask
What does the ranking measure?
Net profit in Stars across settled predictions — how much your calls gained or lost overall. It captures both being right and sizing sensibly, which together are the complete skill.
Why isn't it ranked by accuracy?
Because accuracy alone is easy to game. Back only heavy favourites and you can post a high hit rate while gaining almost nothing, since those markets pay very little when they land. Profit rewards finding mispriced markets rather than obvious ones.
How is the accuracy column calculated?
Weighted by volume rather than taken at face value. Three correct calls out of three is 100% and means nothing as evidence, so a small sample is pulled toward the average instead of shown as a perfect score.
Can I buy a better position?
No. Stars cannot be purchased, so there is no amount of money that improves your rank. The only inputs are the calls you make.
Do unsettled predictions count?
No. Only settled takes affect the board. A large open position changes nothing until it resolves.